Pengaruh Mobilitas Masyarakat terhadap Tingkat Penambahan Jumlah Kasus COVID-19 di Surabaya
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55893/jt.vol24no1.684Keywords:
mobilty, time lag, linear regression, modelling, Covid-19Abstract
This study aims to examine the impact of population and vehicle mobility on the number of COVID-19 cases in Surabaya and to determine the optimal time lag between mobility patterns and the increase in new cases. Linear regression analysis was conducted, with the daily number of positive COVID-19 cases as the dependent variable (Yi) and mobility data as the independent variable (Xi). The mobility data were collected from transportation hubs, including Gubeng Train Station, Purabaya Bus Terminal, and the Waru Utama Toll Gate The results indicate a pattern of increased COVID-19 cases that aligns with changes in mobility patterns. At a lag of 0 days, the correlation between mobility and COVID-19 cases has a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.719, which increases to 0.753 with a 15-day lag (lag = 15). This suggests that fluctuations in community mobility in Surabaya have a stronger impact on COVID-19 case numbers within a 15-day period afterward. The linear regression model, developed through a stepwise selection process, shows that the mobility level at the Waru Utama Toll Gate is the most significant predictor variable, making it an essential factor in understanding the COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the region.
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